Modern Strategy Is Helping Basketball But Killing Baseball
Modern basketball strategy gets it right, while modern baseball strategy makes no sense.
There are those who wish to lament the outbreak of the 3-point shot taking over basketball. But the basketball team that doesn’t look for three initially must be compared to a football team that thinks field goal range before touchdown.
Against Kansas Villanova shot 40 3-pointers, literally one a minute, and made 18. That’s a 45 percent success ratio. To get the same output inside the arc the Wildcats would have had to have been successful on 68 percent of their shots.
Therefore it makes sense to look for the 3-point-shot first. This is why contemporary commentators say Steph Curry is more influential to the game than, say, Hall of Fame centers like Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
Modern day baseball strategy, in contrast, seems to be a race to how fast we can take out a starting pitcher.
Case in point, Gabe Kapler, new manager of the Philadelphia Phillies, who is totally unprepared for the position he has been put in.
On Saturday Kapler tried to remove his starting pitcher, Vince Velasquez, in the third inning.
It was something of a curious time to do so. Though Velasquez had allowed five runs to that point, he had just retired the previous hitter and would have been out of the inning if not for an error.
Furthermore, Velasquez was due up fourth in the next inning, meaning if the Phillies put anyone at all on in the top of the fourth inning Kapler could have used a pinch-hitter, literally his choice of hitters, to rally the Phils back from their 3-run deficit.
But Freddie Freeman was up and the skipper’s must put the left hander Hoby Milner in there to face the left-handed hitter, right?
In the third inning. By using a pitcher who had allowed a home run to Freeman just two days before.
That’s not playing the percentages. That’s Mr. Burns pinch-hitting for Darryl Strawberry with Homer Simpson.
Only one problem. Well, actually a multitude of problems as touched upon earlier, but here’s the biggie.
Milner wasn’t warmed up.
It was to the point where umpire Jerry Layne allowed Milner extra time to prepare (see where the diminishing of the traditional starting pitcher is making baseball games take longer than ever before, boys and girls?), which led to Braves manager Brian Snitker (you know, the competent one) getting kicked out of the game for arguing with Layne about having more concern for Milner’s well-being than his manager was.
What’s the natural progression of Layne’s actions? Will umpires in the future demand a runner on second stop at third base on a hit because he has a tender hamstring?
To add insult to injury, Milner promptly allowed a hit to Freeman, giving the Braves two more runs thanks to Kapler’s micromanaging and a 7–2 lead in an eventual 15–3 victory.
The entire situation was caused by the modern day strategies plaguing baseball.
This is a product of baseball placing less emphasis on strategy, which is killing the game. Kapler himself had only one year of managing in the minors, use of a designated hitter and all, prior to getting the Phillies job.
And it was 11 years ago.
Kapler got his job by being the “Director of Player Development” for the Los Angeles Dodgers the last three seasons. Prior to that he was a scout.
Which means if you play Strat-O-Matic you probably have more sense of baseball strategy than the current manager of the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phils list 10 coaches to help out Kapler. That’s kind of the trend these days. The Cubs roster lists 11.
It should be noted bullpen catchers, once never really thought of as full fledged coaches, are now listed on mlb.com coaching rosters.
But between bullpen coach Jim Gott, pitching coach Rick Kranitz, assistant pitching coach Chris Young (why Kranitz needs an assistant is unknown), bullpen catcher and receiving coach (whatever that is) Craig Driver, the other bullpen catcher Bob Stumpo, and bench coach Rob Thomson you’d think there would be someone forward thinking enough to have the relief pitcher warmed up.
Unless, of course, Kapler’s move was so nonsensical it caught everyone by surprise. Which it did.
Kapler’s staff is entirely new and many are in their first year as a major league coach. Driver was Yale’s catchers coach last season, for instance.
But that’s where baseball is these days. Never mind Dusty Wathan, the son of former major league manager John Wathan, managed 10 years in the Philadelphia system with five playoff appearances, three manager-of-the-year awards, and the Reading Fighting Phils’ record for most victories. He’s only worthy of being the third base coach in the majors!
The guy who calls the shots was a “Director of Player Personnel.”
And you wonder why Kapler is clueless on how to manage a game?
Also in the major leagues this young season, on Sunday Pittsburgh Pirates manager Clint Hurdle, as close to old school as you’ll come in the modern era, took out Trevor Williams after six innings while he was throwing a no-hitter. He’d thrown 85 pitches, after all.
On opening day Red Sox manager Alex Cora took out Chris Sale with a one hit shutout after six innings and 92 pitches and a 3–0 lead to the Rays. The bullpen subsequently lost the game in the bottom of the eighth by giving up six runs.
But to be honest, it’s not really the bullpen’s fault. That’s more on the modern day manager, in Cora’s case his very first game, who is hired more on being popular with his players than an understanding of baseball strategy.
The latter two games both had the DH, so we can only blame the pitch count, baseball’s answer to global warming and the natural byproduct of the DH, for the starter’s removal, not, say, a legitimate move by Hurdle to get his team more offense with a 1-run lead.
But the bottom line is basketball’s modern strategy makes sense, hence younger fans flock to the game.
Baseball’s modern strategy does not, hence the average age of a baseball fan is 53.
And since the starting pitcher is becoming devalued, so is his salary. Baseball’s salaries are down this season, less than two percent, but still enough for super agent Scott Boras to ridiculously suggest baseball owners were fixing their product in a way akin to the Black Sox scandal.
That means when the labor contract comes up in 2021, there’s a real chance for an industry where players averaging more than $4 million annually in salary may strike.
And if that happens, good luck MLB.
Just ask yourself, if you are a business owner, does it make sense to pay more for less work?
That’s why modern day baseball strategy isn’t just killing chances for victory. It is literally killing the sport itself.
Marky Billson hosts Tri-Cities Sports NOW on 1420 NBC Sports Radio Tri-Cities 12–2 p.m. ET. Watch his show here and here.
